In 2026, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will undergo a significant leadership reshuffle. In addition to the continued rotation of voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed Chair is also scheduled to hand over the role in May. The policy stances of the new voting members, as well as the monetary policy leanings of the potential incoming Chair, will play a critical role in shaping U.S. monetary policy and interest rate decisions.
Against the backdrop of still-sticky inflation and a gradually weakening labor market, markets will closely monitor policymakers’ positions to gauge the future path of interest rate policy. This article provides an in-depth analysis of the policy views of the incoming FOMC members and potential new Chair, assessing their possible implications for U.S. interest rates and monetary policy, in order to help investors better grasp future trends in U.S. rates.
Introduction to New Voting Members in 2026
| New 2026 Voting Member | Current Position | Interest Rate Policy Stance | Education & Professional Background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anna Paulson | President, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia | Neutral | - Bachelor of Arts, Carleton College - PhD in Economics, University of Chicago - Assistant Professor of Finance, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University - Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Vice President, Financial Markets Group, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Associate Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Executive Vice President and Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago |
| Neel Kashkari | President, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis | Moderately hawkish | - Bachelor’s Degree in Mechanical Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - Master’s Degree in Mechanical Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - MBA, Wharton School, University of PennsylvaniaAerospace Engineer, TRW - Investment Banking Professional, Goldman Sachs - Assistant Secretary, U.S. Department of the Treasury - Managing Director and Member of the Executive Office, Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) |
| Beth M. Hammack | President, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland | Hawkish | - Bachelor of Arts in Econometrics and History, Stanford University - Member, Financial Research Advisory Committee - Chair, Borrowing Advisory Committee, U.S. Department of the Treasury - Analyst, Capital Markets and Interest Rate Products Trading, Goldman SachsManaging Director, Goldman Sachs - Partner, Goldman Sachs - Co-Head, Global Financing Group, Goldman Sachs |
| Lorie K. Logan | President, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas | Hawkish | - Bachelor of Arts in Political Science, Davidson College - Master of Public Administration, Columbia University - Senior Leader, Markets Group, Federal Reserve Bank of New York - Manager, System Open Market Account (SOMA), Federal Open Market Committee - Executive Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
A review of recent remarks by the four incoming voting members shows that Paulson, Kashkari, and Hammack have all signaled support for pausing rate cuts, while Logan went further by stating ahead of the December FOMC meeting that she does not support continued easing. Taken together, these views suggest that the new voting members are more likely, in the near term, to favor a pause in rate cuts while waiting for further data before making additional policy adjustments.
Overview of Potential Successors to the Fed Chair
Based on betting results from Polymarket, several leading candidates are seen as the most likely to become the next Fed Chair. Their recent public comments generally indicate relatively supportive views toward further rate cuts. Initially, markets priced in Kevin Hassett as the most likely candidate. However, after Donald Trump signaled a preference for Hassett to remain as Director of the U.S. National Economic Council, market expectations temporarily shifted toward Kevin Warsh, a former Fed Governor, who led the odds for a period of time. More recently, after Trump publicly praised Rick Rieder’s performance, expectations have shifted again toward Rieder—a market-oriented candidate with a background distinct from past Chairs and without prior internal Fed experience.
Overall, regardless of who ultimately assumes the role, Trump has repeatedly expressed his desire to appoint a Chair who would support more aggressive rate cuts. As a result, the next Chair is expected to adopt a more accommodative stance than the current policy posture when it comes to future interest rate decisions.
| Potential Chair | Interest Rate Policy Stance | Education & Professional Background |
|---|---|---|
| Rick Rieder | Dovish; argues the federal funds rate should be cut to around 3%, which would be closer to the neutral rate. | - Bachelor of Business Administration in Finance, Emory University - MBA, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania - Credit Analyst, SunTrust Banks (Atlanta) - Senior Leadership Roles, Lehman Brothers, including: Head of Global Proprietary Investment Strategies & Head of Global Credit Business & Chair, Corporate Debt and Loan Capital Commitments Committee & Trustee, Corporate Pension Fund & Credit and Capital Markets Division - President and Chief Executive Officer, R3 Capital Partners - Vice Chair and Member, Borrowing Advisory Committee, U.S. Department of the Treasury - Member, Financial Markets Investor Advisory Committee, Federal Reserve - Member, Investment Advisory Committee, Alphabet / Google - Member, Research Advisory Board, UBS Current Position: Senior Managing Director and Global Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income, BlackRock |
| Kevin Warsh | Dovish; advocates significantly shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet and reinjecting liquidity into the market through lower interest rates. | - Bachelor of Arts in Public Policy, Stanford University - Juris Doctor, Harvard Law School - Executive Director, Mergers & Acquisitions, Morgan Stanley (New York) - Special Assistant and Executive Secretary, National Economic Council, The White House - Governor, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System - Lecturer, Graduate School of Business, Stanford University - Member, Economic Advisory Panel, Congressional Budget Office |
| Christopher Waller | Dovish; expects inflation to continue easing in 2026, but argues there is no need to rush rate cuts given still-elevated inflation, favoring a slower pace of easing. | - Bachelor of Arts in Economics, Bemidji State University - Master’s Degree in Economics, University of Washington - PhD in Economics, University of Washington - Assistant Professor, Associate Professor, and Director of Graduate Studies, Department of Economics, Indiana University - Endowed Chair in Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics, University of Kentucky - Research Fellow, Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn - Professor of Economics, University of Notre Dame - Executive Vice President and Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Current Position: Governor, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System |
| Kevin Hassett | Dovish; argues that despite stronger-than-expected U.S. GDP growth in Q3, the Fed has been cutting rates too slowly. | - Bachelor of Arts in Economics, Swarthmore College - PhD in Economics, University of Pennsylvania - Assistant Professor of Economics, Columbia Business School - Associate Professor of Economics, Columbia Business School - Senior Economist, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System - Policy Advisor, U.S. Department of the Treasury - Director of Economic Policy Studies, American Enterprise Institute - Chair, Council of Economic Advisers, The White House - Senior Economic Advisor, The White House Current Position: Director, National Economic Council |
Impact of Changes in Voting Members in 2025 and 2026
(1 = Dovish, 5 = Hawkish)
| 2025 Policy Stance | 2026 Policy Stance | |
|---|---|---|
| Michelle W. Bowman, Board of Governors | 5 | 1 |
| Christopher J. Waller, Board of Governors | 2 | 1 |
| Stephen I. Miran, Board of Governors | (Kugler = 3) | 1 |
| Lisa D. Cook, Board of Governors | 2 | 2 |
| Michael S. Barr, Board of Governors | 2 | 2 |
| John C. Williams, New York, Vice Chair | 2 | 2 |
| Jerome H. Powell, Board of Governors, Chair | 3 | 3 |
| Philip N. Jefferson, Board of Governors | 3 | 3 |
| Susan M. Collins, Boston | 3 | |
| Austan D. Goolsbee, Chicago | 3 | |
| Anna Paulson, Philadelphia | 3 | |
| Neel Kashkari, Minneapolis | 4 | |
| Alberto G. Musalem, St. Louis | 4 | |
| Jeffrey R. Schmid, Kansas City | 5 | |
| Beth M. Hammack, Cleveland | 5 | |
| Lorie K. Logan, Dallas | 5 |
Note: Scores are compiled by researchers based on J.P. Morgan data and recent public remarks by officials.
Assessment of 2026 Interest Rate Policy Implications
According to J.P. Morgan’s assessment of FOMC voting member stances in 2026, the four newly rotating regional Fed presidents are collectively more hawkish. At the same time, several Fed Governors have recently signaled a greater openness to rate cuts compared with last year. As a result, the overall policy balance reflects hawkish rotating voters and relatively dovish Governors.
Beyond the regular rotation, Stephen Miran—who filled the vacancy left by Kugler and joined the Board with a partial term—will see his term expire at the end of January. By law, however, he may continue to serve until a successor is confirmed. Whether Miran remains in place temporarily or Trump nominates a new replacement, markets generally interpret this seat as more likely to lean toward rate cuts in line with Trump’s preferences.
Recently, legal disputes over the potential removal of Lisa Cook reached the Supreme Court. During hearings, justices expressed caution about removing a Fed Governor based on unverified allegations of mortgage fraud, repeatedly noting that such actions could undermine the Fed’s independence and amplify financial market volatility. As a result, the likelihood of Cook being removed in the near term has declined.
Powell’s term as Fed Chair will expire in May 2026, though his term as a Governor extends through January 2028. Historically, most Chairs step down from the Board upon leaving the Chair position. However, amid rising tensions between the White House and the Fed—including subpoenas issued by the Department of Justice related to Fed and Powell matters—whether Powell remains on the Board after stepping down, or retains influence due to delays in the nomination and confirmation process, has become a key focus for markets.
Taken together, the overall composition of the Committee in 2026 is expected to tilt more dovish, leading markets to believe there is room for further rate cuts. However, if Cook ultimately remains in office and Powell retains his role as a Governor or if the Chair transition is delayed, the White House’s ability to reshape the voting structure would be reduced. Under such circumstances, market concerns that Trump could significantly expand the scale of rate cuts through intervention may gradually fade.
Supplement: Recent Remarks from New Voting Members and Potential Chairs
Jan 13, 2026 – Rick Rieder, Global Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income, BlackRock
Rieder stated that his position has been very clear in recent months: the Fed needs to lower interest rates, though not aggressively. He believes a terminal rate of around 3% would be sufficient and closer to the neutral rate.
Jan 5, 2026 – Neel Kashkari, President, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Kashkari said current rates are already close to neutral. More data are needed to determine whether inflation or employment will be the dominant factor going forward, and policy should then adjust from this neutral stance. He added that the Fed is approaching the threshold at which it may stop cutting rates.
Jan 3, 2026 – Anna Paulson, President, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Paulson said that while goods inflation has risen notably, it is likely to return to normal levels within the next 12 months. Both housing inflation and non-housing services inflation are also gradually normalizing, leaving her cautiously optimistic on inflation. At the same time, economic growth and the labor market present mixed signals: strong Q3 GDP growth and consumption were achieved alongside a slowing labor market. While the underlying causes require further clarification, she expects the labor market to gradually stabilize. Overall, her theme for 2026 is to wait for greater clarity, with modest rate adjustments appropriate if these expectations materialize.
Dec 23, 2025 – Kevin Hassett, Director, U.S. National Economic Council
Hassett argued that despite stronger-than-expected U.S. GDP growth in the third quarter, the Fed’s pace of rate cuts has been too slow. Compared with other major central banks, the Fed has fallen behind in easing. He also noted that rapid advances in AI could support economic growth while placing downward pressure on inflation.
Dec 21, 2025 – Beth Hammack, President, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Hammack said the Fed should keep rates unchanged for at least the next few months. After three consecutive rate cuts, she is concerned this could reignite inflation. She believes policymakers should wait until next spring, when Trump-era tariffs are more fully absorbed into supply chains, allowing for a clearer assessment of whether goods inflation is easing. She also argued that data distortions caused by a government shutdown led to an underestimation of the 2.7% year-over-year CPI increase in November.
Dec 17, 2025 – Christopher Waller, Governor, Federal Reserve Board
Waller expects inflation to continue moderating in 2026. He noted that the policy rate remains about 100 basis points above neutral, but given still-elevated inflation, he sees no urgency to cut rates and instead favors a gradual approach toward neutral.
Nov 21, 2025 – Lorie K. Logan, President, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Logan said labor market supply and demand are now close to balance, and that the September rate cut reduced downside risks to employment. For remaining risks, the FOMC can respond through close monitoring rather than additional cuts. She therefore opposed the October rate cut and said that after the September and October cuts, further easing in December would be difficult to justify unless inflation slows faster than expected or the labor market cools more sharply.
Nov 16, 2025 – Kevin Warsh
Warsh argued that the Fed should abandon the idea that inflation is driven by overly strong growth or excessive wage gains. Instead, he said inflation is primarily the result of excessive government spending and money creation, and that the Fed should significantly shrink its balance sheet while channeling liquidity back into the market through lower interest rates.
