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2025-08-18
Sanction risks have eased, and crude prices came under pressure over the past two weeks. Driving-season demand remained steady and rig counts stopped falling, underscoring solid fundamentals. However, the divergence between IEA and OPEC demand forecasts has widened further, leaving the market without a clear direction.
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# fiisual lab
2025-07-14
The recently passed "One Big Beautiful Bill Act” is considered the signature legislative achievement of Donald Trump’s second term. This comprehensive bill integrates tax reform, national defense, border security, social welfare, and energy policy. Key provisions include: extending and expanding TCJA-related tax cuts and investment incentives, significantly increasing defense and border security spending, cutting back on welfare programs such as Medicaid and food assistance, and shifting energy and environmental policy to support fossil fuel development. The bill is projected to boost U.S. real GDP growth to 0.9% in 2026, though its tax cuts and subsidy reductions are expected to intensify social divisions across the country.
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Over the past two weeks, oil prices edged higher, supported by tightening supply-demand conditions in the spot market. The continued decline in U.S. rig counts has partially offset the supply pressure from OPEC’s expanded production. Going forward, attention should be paid to tariff policy developments and U.S. refined product demand data.
2025-06-30
Over the past two weeks, market trading has centered around the Israel-Iran conflict. Initially, oil prices surged after Iran passed a bill to close the Strait of Hormuz. However, following the announcement of a ceasefire agreement between the two nations, the geopolitical risk premium quickly dissipated, leading to a sharp 15% drop in oil prices.
2025-06-16
Over the past two weeks, oil prices have surged by approximately 17%, primarily driven by two major catalysts: the warming of China–U.S. trade negotiations and the outbreak of conflict between Israel and Iran. However, the EIA’s latest data showed a significant and unexpected build in refined product inventories, casting doubt on whether the U.S. driving season is truly boosting demand, and raising concerns for oil prices moving forward.
2025-06-02
Over the past two weeks, oil prices have consolidated in a low range. The market has been digesting a mix of Middle East geopolitical risks, expectations of increased OPEC+ output, and fluctuations in U.S. court rulings on tariffs. Although a larger-than-expected drop in EIA inventory temporarily supported prices, increasing supply pressure and concerns about economic growth have weighed on short-term price momentum, leaving oil prices without clear upward drivers.
2025-05-05
Over the past two weeks, international oil prices have dropped by approximately 9%. Market confidence was initially shaken by a shift in U.S. trade policy and concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence. Sentiment later recovered following favorable policy signals. Meanwhile, several OPEC+ countries signaled a willingness to increase output, undermining confidence in previous production cut commitments and intensifying concerns over a potential supply glut. WTI prices even briefly fell below their post-pandemic lows. Although geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran provided short-term support, the overall market remains bearish.
2025-04-21
Over the past two weeks, international oil prices have shown high volatility. The imposition of tariffs by the U.S., China, and Europe raised concerns about declining oil demand, pushing prices to recent lows. Subsequently, the U.S. announced a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs for multiple countries, temporarily boosting market sentiment and prompting a sharp rebound in oil prices. Prices then rose further, supported by OPEC+’s announcement of compensatory production cuts, escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, and positive progress in U.S.-EU trade negotiations.
2025-04-17
Since his second inauguration, U.S. President Donald Trump has rolled out a series of tariff measures. As of April 16, 2025, his administration has announced a 90-day suspension of the reciprocal tariff policy unveiled last week. However, negotiations with China remain inconclusive, with effective tariffs on certain Chinese imports now totaling up to 245%. The article outlines a comprehensive timeline of Trump’s tariff actions since reentering office, as well as the current international structure of U.S. trade policy. Despite some reversals, Trump’s overall tariff strategy can be broadly categorized into three main segments: North American trade partners, China, and other countries.
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2025-04-09
On April 2, President Donald Trump announced a sweeping new trade policy: starting April 5, the U.S. will impose a 10% baseline tariff on all trade partners. Countries deemed to have unfair trade practices will face reciprocal tariffs ranging from 10% to 50%, effective April 9. Taiwan's rate is set at 32%, while China faces a staggering total tariff burden of 104%, including previously implemented levies. This article breaks down the complete tariff schedule, including region-specific rates, product exemptions, and future planned tariffs on key sectors. It also analyzes the global market response, with U.S. stocks tumbling—particularly in the energy sector—and heightened volatility across oil, gold, and other commodities amid escalating trade war fears and rising risk-off sentiment.
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